B.C.’s ongoing recovery to persist through 2021 and beyond, but slow growth scenario expected
- B.C.6 . b)【银河yh0076】中国经济将收缩.1 per cent in 2020 with a recovery trend lifting growth to 4.2021年为0%
- 3 .经济适度增长.4%的预测在2022年和2.2023年将达到2%
- Economic output returns to pre-pandemic levels part-way through 2022 as services-sector recovery lags goods production
- Unemployment to average nearly 10 per cent by end of 2020, gradually improving to near 6 per cent by 2023
- Emergency government support programs for households and businesses to remain supportive through 2020, 但受益将在2021年缓和
- Major project investments announced pre-pandemic to provide support as businesses remain cautious
- Lumber sector lifted by spike in prices, but long-term supply constraints remain.
B.C.’s economic recovery is well underway particularly in employment, housing and retail spending but headline figures mask underlying challenges, according to 中央1 Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Yu, who expects 2020 to remain “a series of lowlights with contractions in nearly all areas of the economy.”
在他的最新 B.C 2020-2023年经济分析Yu预测GDP将下降6个百分点.1 per cent this year, followed by a shallower recovery of about 4.2021年为0% with output returning to pre-pandemic levels in early 2022. The provincial economy is forecast to grow by 3.到2022年，将增长4%.2023年将达到2%.
Yu stated: “Ongoing recovery is set to persist through 2021 and beyond – aided by major construction projects such as the LNG Canada project and the Site C Dam which were initiated prior to the pandemic – but will remain below pre-pandemic levels into 2022.”
B.C公司已经回收了400辆汽车的一半以上,000 jobs lost from February through April but the unemployment rate is sitting near 11 per cent compared to 5 per cent in February. “The substantial rehiring spike due to re-openings of businesses closed by the pandemic were mainly part-time roles whereas full-time employment has been slower to rebound,”Yu说, adding: “The unemployment rate is forecast to trend toward 8 per cent by the end of 2020 but will still result in an average unemployment rate close to 10 per cent due in part to the quicker rebound in labour force participation.”
就业增长将下降7个百分点.2020年增长1%，再增长4%.到2021年，将增长4%.3 per cent in 2022, moving employment back to pre-pandemic levels, according to the report. 2
“The housing cycle has been a huge surprise from what was anticipated at the early stages of the pandemic, and is likely propelled by a combination of pent-up demand in March and April, substantial cuts to mortgage rates and a shift in consumer preferences given the advent of work from home and constraints to leisure activities,”Yu说.
然而, housing starts will decline by more than 20 per cent this year to 34,700 units and are only expected to rise modestly thereafter. The construction cycle will be tempered by fewer presales in prior years and a slowing of B.C.中国的人口增长到1.今年为0%，而今年则为0%.2021年将达到6%, reflecting global travel restrictions and reduced processing of permanent residency applications.
Retail spending returned to near February levels in July after a 25 per cent drop through April. 然而, Yu cautions: “Pent-up demand surely played a role in the uptick, 特别是对于车辆, 衣服和其他非必需物品.” He added: “Retail spending is also only a part of total consumer spending, 以及在餐馆消费方面缺乏选择, entertainment and tourism is likely to be reallocated to goods therefore the gains from pent-up demand will likely retrace.”
关于制造业和商品出口，B.C fared well compared to other provinces due to lower exposure to the hardest hit sectors: automotive production and energy, but activity dropped by 11 per cent from 2019 due mostly to sawmill closures through that year. Yu notes a bright spot in lumber production, commenting: “Producers are turning back the clock as prices have unexpectedly surged on demand for renovations and a housing market that has remained surprisingly robust both in Canada and the U.S.”
Global growth is set to experience a modern record contraction (4.9 per cent) in 2020 and emergency fiscal supports aimed at bridging individuals and businesses through the pandemic are likely to come to an end at some point, 这将拖累经济复苏. “Adding to the slow growth scenario is the emergence of greater trade and political uncertainty between the U.S. 以及中国。.
根据报告，B.C. 出口预计将出现反弹.5%，到2021年.到2022年将达到5%, 在今年下跌11%之后, “reflecting a combination of stronger global activity and rising tourism flows.”
阅读完整的 B.C. 经济分析2020 - 2023
中央1 is a preferred partner for financial, digital banking and payment products and services – fuelling the success of businesses across Canada. 银河076注册利用银河076注册的规模, strength and expertise to power progress for more than 250 credit unions and other financial institutions, enhancing the financial well-being of more than 5 million customers from coast to coast. 欲银河yh0076信息，请访问www.ynsgb10.com.